Afghan War Draws in China and Russia

2011-02-16 (China Military News cited from rightsidenews.com) -- The U.S.-led war against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan has deteriorated into a growing open conflict with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and threatens to rapidly fall into a full-blown war with Pakistan. Signs of such an upcoming clash between Pakistan and the U.S. can already be seen. In anticipation of such a full-scale clash with America, Pakistan is seeking an enhanced role for China on its side, thereby triggering a possible superpower clash, involving the U.S., China, Russia, NATO powers, and other regional players.
According to MEMRI, a high-profile Middle Eastern think-tank, China's involvement as a Pakistan ally is ongoing and becoming a good deal more obvious and pervasive. In the past year, Pakistan has sought the stationing of 11,000 Chinese troops at Gilgit-Baltistan in the sensitive Kashmir region. Pakistan denied the troop presence at first, but then explained the Chinese were there to help Pakistan with its flooding. MEMRI makes other points involving Chinese-Pakistan cooperation.
Pakistani tribal areas have been opened up for Chinese inspection. Chinese Army officials were welcomed into the Khyber Agency in October 2010 by Colonel Asad Qureshi. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani welcomed a Chinese role in Afghanistan in April 2010. Pakistan has signed a contract with China to build Pakistani warships that will carry missiles and heavy weapons. Pakistan sees itself as aligned against the West in a superpower clash.
The Chinese-built Pakistani port at Gwadar has a Chinese presence and serves as a counter to India's naval dominance in the Indian Ocean. China is building two nuclear reactors in Pakistan and just recently it became apparent that Pakistan was building a fourth nuclear facility to produce plutonium. Pakistan recently test-fired a Hatf-VII cruise missile that can carry a nuclear payload.
Pakistan is becoming steadily more aggressive. MEMRI tells us that in early February, Pakistani planes bombarded Afghan border police posts and civilian homes to warn to Afghan President Hamid Karzai against a visit to India. There have been more suicide bombings in Kabul itself. The Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI has begun leaking the names of CIA agents in the country – both station chief Jonathan Banks and Elizabeth Rudd from Peshawar.
Thus the theatre of the war expands. In "superpower" clash, as MEMRI calls it, Russia has allied itself with the West. Russia wants NATO troops to stay in Afghanistan indefinitely. Russia is providing Afghan police with weapons and ammunitions and is carrying out joint counter-narcotics operations.
MEMRI itself is not necessarily seen as an impartial observer when it comes to Middle East analysis, but in this case the facts "on the ground" seem clear. China and Pakistan seem to be drawing closer while Russia is casting its lot with NATO. Ultimately, this may not promise a larger war – it is hard to conjure up a vision of Chinese forces fighting frankly against Russian and NATO ones – but it does mean that the war remains an intractable morass for NATO.
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